What happened on October 28
The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by a quarter point, from 2.25% to 2.50%. It hadn’t moved since October 2025, and this is the first increase since July 2023.
The reason given: higher oil prices are pushing inflation up, and the Bank wants to keep it from spreading to other prices. It said another increase may be needed and that it will decide one announcement at a time. The next one is scheduled for December 9.
Variable or fixed: who feels it right away
A variable rate follows the banks’ prime rate, which follows the policy rate. If you have a variable mortgage, the increase applies now: either your payment goes up, or more of the same payment goes to interest, depending on your contract.
A fixed rate doesn’t follow the Bank of Canada directly. It mostly follows five-year bond yields, which move with what markets expect. If you already have a fixed rate, nothing changes until renewal. If you’re buying, what counts is the rate offered on the day your lender holds it for you.
The real number: $53 a month, but $8,500 less budget
Take a condo sold at Brossard’s median price, $410,000 in Q3 2026 according to Centris. With 10% down and the mortgage insurance premium added to the loan, you borrow about $380,400, amortized over 25 years.
At an example rate of 4.25%, the payment is about $2,053 a month. At 4.50%, about $2,106. The difference: $53 a month, a little over $3,150 across a five-year term. That’s real money, but it isn’t what stops a purchase.
What stops it is the qualifying test. The bank checks that you could pay at a higher rate than your contract rate: the contract rate plus 2 points, or 5.25% at minimum. If your rate goes from 4.25% to 4.50%, the test rate goes from 6.25% to 6.50%. With the same income, the same maximum payment lets you borrow about $8,500 less.
This calculation shows the order of magnitude; it isn’t a loan offer. Your lender or mortgage broker does the real one with your income, your debts and the day’s rate.
Meanwhile, supply has grown, but not everywhere
A rate hike doesn’t push prices down the same way everywhere. What matters is how many homes are for sale compared with how many sell, measured in months of inventory: under 8 months, the market favours sellers; 8 to 10 is balanced; over 10 favours buyers.
For condos in Brossard, Centris counted 433 listings for 153 sales in Q3 2026, about 8.5 months of inventory, the highest reading in the areas we cover. A condo there stayed on the market 62 days on average. Here, buyers have time to compare, and they can negotiate the price, the inspection and the date.
For single-family houses in Saint-Hubert, it’s the opposite: 134 listings for 129 sales in the same quarter, about 3 months of inventory, and 29 days on the market on average. A quarter point won’t change that scarcity much. A well-located house at the right price still sells quickly there.
In other words, the same news reads differently depending on the city and the type of home. That’s why we look at your area’s numbers before talking strategy.
The plan for a buyer this winter
One: get pre-approved before December 9. A pre-approval often comes with a rate held for a set period, often 90 to 120 days depending on the lender. If rates rise again in the meantime, you keep yours. Ask for the exact length and conditions in writing.
Two: redo your budget at the test rate, not the rate in the ads. That’s the number the bank will use.
Three: aim where supply is deep. On our prices page, we rank the areas by months of inventory and publish the list of homes whose seller has been waiting 60 days or more. A seller who has waited two months hears an offer differently from one who just listed.
Four: if this is your first home, count the welcome tax refund. For a first home bought since January 1, 2026, Quebec refunds up to $5,875 of it through a tax credit, depending on eligibility. It doesn’t change your payment, but it changes how much cash you need overall.